The EPA released final 2017-18 RFS volumes, raising overall renewable fuel and total advanced biofuel requirements above the proposed rule. The biomass-based diesel volume for 2018 was held at 2.1 billion gallons, the same as proposed, which the American Soybean Association said did not go far enough for domestic biodiesel.
The higher advanced biofuel total supports soybean oil demand, but holding biomass-based diesel at the proposed level limits the upside for soy biodiesel, so the price effect is positive but less than it could have been.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.