The American Soybean Association welcomed the EPA's 2020 biomass-based diesel requirement of 2.43 billion gallons, a 330-million-gallon increase. Soy groups criticized the lack of reallocation for volumes waived through small refinery exemptions.
The biodiesel mandate increase supports soybean oil demand, while the unaddressed waived volumes limit the expected uplift. Soy oil prices may firm modestly.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.