Federal Reserve begins rate-hiking cycle

After 4,478 past macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Sep 18, 2024Federal Reserve begins cutting rates-0.4%
• Dec 15, 2016Optimistic Federal Reserve Hikes Rates+1.6%
• Jul 19, 2018Trump criticizes Federal Reserve for rate hikes, breaking with tradition-0.4%
• Sep 21, 2022Federal Reserve Meeting Fed Makes Another Big Rate Increase+2.6%
• Feb 1, 2023Federal Reserve raises key interest rate 0.25%, signals more hikes likely+1.1%

After 456 past macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2023Climate Change and Risks to Midwest Agriculture - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago-1.1%
• Oct 31, 2023US dollar falls as markets believe Fed is done hiking rates | Reuters+4.5%
• Jan 30, 2019U.S. Dollar Dives after Federal Reserve Moves to the Sidelines+0.1%
• Feb 22, 2021US money markets bringing forward Fed rate hike bets to end-2022 - Markets - Business Recorder+2.0%
• May 14, 2020The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Did Not Intervene in FX Markets During the First Quarter - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK+1.3%

After 541 past macro events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2023Climate Change and Risks to Midwest Agriculture - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago-1.9%
• Oct 31, 2023US dollar falls as markets believe Fed is done hiking rates | Reuters+1.1%
• Jan 30, 2019U.S. Dollar Dives after Federal Reserve Moves to the Sidelines+0.2%
• Feb 22, 2021US money markets bringing forward Fed rate hike bets to end-2022 - Markets - Business Recorder+1.6%
• May 14, 2020The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Did Not Intervene in FX Markets During the First Quarter - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK-0.0%

After 1,159 past macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.5%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 14, 2023Investor's guide to the coming Federal Reserve pause-5.9%
• Jan 17, 2019South African Rand Slips after Reserve Bank says Fewer Rate Hikes Needed+0.7%
• May 12, 2020More Accommodation Coming from the Federal Reserve? - ADM Investor Services+32.3%
• Jun 13, 2023Eggs are cheaper now, but inflation isn't where the Federal Reserve wants it to be+5.5%
• Nov 23, 2021Indian bonds, rupee weaken on Jerome Powell’s new term at U.S. Federal Reserve - The Hindu-13.8%