
The US dollar fell against most currencies on Wednesday as investors read Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting remarks as a sign the central bank may be finished raising rates. The dollar index had earlier risen after the Fed statement and has been trading sideways since its early October high near 107.34.
Expectations of an end to Fed hikes weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices and improves export competitiveness for some origins.
After 123 past bullish macro events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Powell's post-FOMC tone on Nov 1 shifted sentiment toward the Fed being done hiking, setting up dollar weakness that the jobs data then amplified.