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USDA's monthly WASDE raised its 2025-26 US soybean crush forecast to a record 69.1mn t, up 1.36mn t from June. The increase reflects a 27% jump in soybean oil use for biofuel to 7.03mn t, following US policy changes to the 45Z tax credit and RFS credits.
Stronger biofuel demand for soybean oil pulls more soybeans into crush, which supports soybean and soybean oil prices and leaves more meal available.
argusmedia.comRyan KooryMar 25, 2024After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
