
Michigan Ag Today reported that USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks to 938 million bushels, the highest since 2019-20, while corn and soybean carryouts were unchanged at 2.127 billion and 350 million bushels. USDA raised soybean crush by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion and nudged season-average farm prices higher for all three crops.
Higher wheat carryout is bearish for wheat as a feed option. A larger soybean crush supports soybean meal output, which can ease meal supply for feed buyers.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.