
Senator Roger Marshall led a bipartisan letter asking Treasury to limit 45Z clean fuel tax credit eligibility to fuels made from domestic feedstocks. The letter says the credit, effective January 1, favors imported UCO, which has averaged over half a billion pounds monthly since August 2023.
Lawmakers estimate farmers lost at least $5.4 billion in soybean value.
If Treasury restricts 45Z to domestic feedstocks, demand for imported UCO falls and domestic soybean and corn oil demand rises, supporting soybean and corn prices.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.