According to two sources, the EPA's draft proposal would raise the 2021 US biofuel blending mandate to 20.17 billion gallons from 20.09 billion in 2020, including 15 billion gallons of conventional biofuel and 5.17 billion of advanced biofuel. It would also set the 2022 biodiesel mandate at 2.76 billion gallons, up from 2.43 billion in 2021.
A higher biodiesel mandate supports soybean oil demand, and the slight overall increase in conventional volumes supports corn-based ethanol demand, which tends to be bullish for both feedstocks.
After 317 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.