
Senator Roger Marshall led a bipartisan letter asking the Treasury Department to limit the 45Z clean fuel tax credit to renewable fuels made from domestic feedstocks. The letter cites heavy imports of used cooking oil, which it says have pressured U.S. soybean and corn oil prices.
If Treasury restricts eligibility to domestic feedstocks, demand for U.S. soybean oil from biodiesel producers would rise and imports of cheaper used cooking oil would fall. The outcome is still uncertain because Treasury has not yet issued a rule.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.