
The US Treasury released guidance for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit that gives stronger support to domestic feedstocks like US soybeans and disqualifies imported feedstocks. The guidance also excludes indirect land use changes from emissions rates.
Favoring domestic feedstocks shifts biofuel demand toward US soybean oil and away from imported used cooking oil and tallow, supporting soybean oil prices and US crush demand.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.