Fastmarkets outlines two main challenges for biofuel markets: feedstock supply limits as renewable diesel capacity in the US is forecast to double within six months, and legislative uncertainty around small refinery exemptions and mandate releases. Feedstock demand is expected to exceed domestic fats, oils and greases supply.
Surging demand for vegetable oils and fats from renewable diesel and SAF producers tightens feedstock supply, supporting soybean oil and other oil prices and raising the pull on oilseed supplies.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.