Analysts Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs estimate the biomass-based diesel industry must raise net D4 RIN generation 55% in 2026 and 67% in 2027 from 2025 levels to meet the RVOs. They cite a D6 pull and ongoing export retirements as drivers.
The required D4 RIN increase signals strong demand for biomass-based diesel feedstocks, supporting soybean oil prices and vegetable oil imports.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.