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Industry analysts say palm oil is trading at a premium to rival oils for the first time, as output slows and Indonesia diverts more palm into biodiesel. Indonesia raised its biodiesel palm blend to 40% this year and is studying 50% for 2026.
GAPKI estimates Indonesia's exports will fall to 20 million tonnes by 2030.
Biodiesel mandates pull palm supply away from food and export markets, which supports palm and vegetable oil prices over the longer term. The end of the historical palm discount raises costs for buyers.
gapki.idadminApr 25, 2025After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
