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OPIS reports that RIN credit prices and the cost of RFS compliance hit record highs in early 2021. The compliance cost was 13.55 cents per gallon on January 29, the highest in OPIS's RIN assessment history.
Drivers included EPA's delayed 2021 renewable fuel blending targets and the bankruptcy of a large RIN trading house.
Higher RIN costs raise the price of biomass-based diesel and make soybean oil more attractive as a feedstock, which supports soy oil prices. Uncertainty over EPA's final targets could keep prices volatile.
opis.comopisteamFeb 5, 2021After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
