Indonesian sources said accelerating the E20 ethanol blending target from 2028 and raising biodiesel blending to B50 would face obstacles. Officials said the B50 plan, scrapped in January, could be revived due to surging crude prices from the Middle East conflict.
A revived B50 mandate would divert large volumes of CPO from exports into domestic biofuel, tightening global palm oil supply and supporting prices, while higher crude costs also lift biofuel economics.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.