
Indonesian consumers, fuel retailers and palm oil producers face higher costs as palm oil prices surge and the government expands biodiesel use to 40%. The fund that collects export levies is likely to fall short at current prices.
B40 biodiesel will be subsidized only for the public service sector, about 7.5 million kiloliters.
Higher palm oil prices raise the cost of the biodiesel mandate and limit subsidy coverage, which may reduce subsidized biodiesel demand and keep palm oil prices firm.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.