
Sagyp projects Argentina's 2024-25 soybean planted area at 17.8 million hectares, 7.8% above the prior season, with planting reaching 36% of the projected area in November. BCR raised its soybean output estimate to 53-53.5 million tonnes, and Sagyp forecasts wheat output up 10.7% to 17.6 million tonnes.
Larger expected Argentine soybean and wheat crops add export supply and are mildly bearish for soy complex and wheat prices, with rainfall the key swing factor for planting progress and yields.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.