
FranceAgriMer's October 14 balance forecasts French soft-wheat production at 31.486 million tonnes for 2026/27, with 6.5 million tonnes of exports outside the EU. The balance also includes barley, grain maize and durum estimates.
A sizeable French crop and 6.5 Mt of non-EU exports add export competition for other origins, which is mildly bearish for world wheat prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.