The Rosario Grain Exchange projects Argentina's 2024-25 grain and oilseed output at 143.2 million tonnes, up 9.3%, with soybeans at 52.6 million tonnes. If dry conditions persist, the total could fall to 128.8 million tonnes, with soybeans at 46 million.
A larger Argentine crop adds export supply to the market and pressures soybean, soymeal and corn prices. The downside drought scenario would reverse this and support prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.