Conab's 11th survey puts Brazil's 2018/19 grain crop at a record 241.3 million tonnes, up 6% or 13.7 million tonnes. Second-crop corn reached a record 73.1 million tonnes, up 35.6%, while first-crop corn is seen down 2.1%.
Soybean production fell 3.6% to 115 million tonnes, and Brazil remains the top soybean exporter.
A record Brazilian corn crop, mostly safrinha, increases export availability and pressures world corn prices. Brazil's dominance in soybean exports keeps competition for US soy sales high.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.