
The USDA December report projects Argentina's 2025/26 soybean exports at 8.3 million tonnes, the highest in six years, while soybean meal and oil exports decline to 29 million and 6.2 million tonnes. The cap on the September tax suspension was reached in three days, adding over 3 million tonnes of sales.
Shrinking Argentine meal and oil exports tighten global supplies of protein and oil meals, which supports soybean meal and soybean oil prices.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.