
The USDA lowered its forecast for Argentine soybean output and exports after dry weather hit yields in northwestern Buenos Aires and Entre Rios. Output was cut by 2.5M tonnes and exports were downgraded from 6.85M to 5.5M tonnes due to Brazilian competition and strong local crush.
The 2021/22 outlook calls for 51.5M tonnes of production and 6.5M tonnes of exports.
A smaller Argentine crop and reduced export availability tighten global soybean and meal supply, supporting soybean and soymeal prices. Strong domestic crush keeps Argentine meal and oil flows firm.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.