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The USDA cut its forecast for Argentina's 2022/23 soybean crop to 21.25M tonnes, 3.75M tonnes below its July WASDE projection, after lower-than-expected yields. Crushing, domestic consumption and ending stocks estimates were lowered accordingly.
The agency expects a recovery to 50.5M tonnes in 2023/24 if weather normalizes.
A smaller Argentine crop reduces export supply of soybeans, meal and oil and raises import needs, which supports global soy complex prices until the next crop recovers.
ofimagazine.comQuartz Business MediaAug 2, 2023After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
