
CONAB's 11th survey projects Brazil's 2023-24 grain output at 298.6 million tonnes, down 21.2 million tonnes, mainly from adverse weather. Corn is forecast at 115.65 million tonnes, down 12.3%, and soybeans at 147.38 million tonnes, down 4.7%.
Wheat area fell 11.6%.
Lower corn and soybean output tightens Brazilian export availability and supports global feed grain and soymeal prices. Cotton and beans are rising, but they have little feed relevance.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.