Brazil's crop agency Conab cut its 2017-18 corn crop forecast to 82.18 million tonnes from 82.93 million in July, due to adverse weather in key regions. The safrinha second crop was trimmed to 55.34 million tonnes, and exports were held at 30 million tonnes.
A smaller Brazilian corn crop tightens export supply and supports international corn prices, with Brazil competing for export share against the US and Argentina. The lower outlook also raises the likelihood of Brazil relying on import substitution for domestic feed demand.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.