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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr says USDA surprised the trade by cutting its corn yield estimate by four bushels per acre in the May WASDE, before May 15 planting data was released. The first new-crop balance sheets were tight across corn, soybeans and wheat, with record or near-record prices projected.
Drought in South America and reduced Black Sea exports were also cited.
An early yield cut removed over 325 million bushels from projected production, supporting corn, soybean and wheat prices. Further gains would require actual crop damage from weather.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrMay 13, 2022After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
