
The USDA attaché in Canberra projected Australia's 2025/26 wheat output at 31 million tonnes, down from 34.11 million in 2024/25, due to low soil moisture and below-average autumn rain in the southern states. Harvested area is seen falling to 12.5 million hectares and yields to 2.48 tonnes per hectare, with ending stocks reduced to 4.38 million tonnes.
A smaller Australian wheat crop and tighter ending stocks reduce export supply available to world buyers, which supports global wheat prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.