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Rice futures appear to have found a bottom, holding above $10 with resistance at $10.50 to $10.75. The January USDA reports lifted domestic rice use and cut projected ending stocks by 3.6 million cwt, while the January WASDE raised corn yields and acreage, pushing September 2026 corn futures to their lowest close since August at $4.31.
Rice's lower projected ending stocks support prices, while the corn yield increase adds bearish pressure on corn. Fund selling risk rises if corn breaks below technical support near $4.30.
arfb.comJan 21, 2026After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Arkansas Farm Bureau notes rice futures found a bottom above $10 as USDA raised domestic use and cut ending stocks by 3.6 million cwt, a supportive fundamental shift consistent with the rebound.
