Certified FSA data showed lower long-grain rice planted acres than expected, with Arkansas at 1.26 million acres versus 1.45 million in 2024 and Missouri at 210,000 versus 214,000. Milled rice exports are moving at a decent pace while rough rice exports remain slow, and US long-grain imports are projected at 96 million bushels.
Smaller US long-grain acreage tightens domestic supply, which is supportive for rough rice prices, while rising milled imports and slow rough exports weigh on the balance. Soybean prices are also tied to export performance and biofuel policy.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.