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USDA's January 2026 Rice Outlook says the 2025/26 all-rice crop was cut 0.6 million cwt to 206.7 million, despite a higher yield of 7,544 pounds per acre. Harvested area fell 22,000 acres to 2.740 million, with the largest reductions in California and Louisiana.
The long-grain crop is estimated at 153.3 million cwt, down 10.9% from the prior year.
A smaller harvested area tightens the U.S. rice supply outlook, which supports domestic prices. The lower production estimate is modestly bullish for rough rice.
ricefarming.comMAFGJan 30, 2026After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
