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USDA's July Rice Outlook cut 2026/27 US all-rice production 21.9 million cwt to a 39-year low of 153.3 million cwt on reduced harvested area. Imports were raised to a record 49.8 million cwt, ending stocks were lowered to a 4-year low of 30.9 million cwt, and the season-average farm price was raised $1.40 to $14.90 per cwt.
A sharply smaller US crop, record imports and tighter ending stocks point to firmer domestic rough rice prices. Feed buyers may see reduced domestic rice availability for feed-grade use.
ricefarming.comMAFGJul 31, 2026After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
