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China's 2018-19 soybean imports are forecast by USDA's Beijing bureau at 100.5 million tonnes, below the official USDA figure and the smallest annual gain since 2012-13. Grain and soy futures rallied after mixed USDA acreage and stocks data, with Chicago wheat up nearly 5%.
Weaker Chinese import growth is bearish for soybeans and meal demand, though prospective 25% US tariffs and weather worries underpin prices.
woodallgrain.comJun 29, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
