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Chicago, Kansas and Minneapolis wheat, along with MATIF wheat, rallied sharply after a Russian newspaper reported Moscow was considering a temporary halt to wheat and sunflower exports. Later, sources said Russia had no plans to halt wheat exports but wanted minimum export prices.
Possible Russian export curbs threaten supply from a leading exporter, so the report lifted wheat and related oilseed prices sharply.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorMar 26, 2023After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Russian newspaper report of a possible temporary wheat export halt, published ahead of the 27 March session, is the most direct trigger for the sharp rally across Chicago, Kansas and MATIF wheat, even though it was later walked back.
