Voyage data shows Brazil has become China's primary soybean supplier, with Brazilian exports to China surging in 2025. US soybean shipments to China fell to roughly 2 million tonnes in March 2025, well below the same periods in 2023 and 2024.
Sustained loss of Chinese demand for US soybeans weakens US export prices and basis, while Brazil's record harvest and competitive pricing reinforce downward pressure on global soybean values.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.