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StoneX's weekly Brazil soybean report says soybeans rose on weather concerns, with July closing at 1215 cents per bushel, up 3.2% for the week. Flooding in Rio Grande do Sul made crop and quality losses impossible to assess, while the USDA put Brazil's crop at 155 million tonnes.
The report lists both bearish factors such as high world production and bullish factors such as CONAB's lower estimate and a high fund net short.
Brazilian flood losses and a large fund short position support prices, but ample global supply and a 155 Mt Brazil crop cap the rally. Argentine meal and oil export capacity matters for soymeal.
stonex.comStoneX Intelligence BrazilMay 6, 2024After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 18 past neutral weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +2.6% over 5 sessions (72% higher; middle half -0.4% to +3.5%), and +3.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Weekly report ties soybean gains to Rio Grande do Sul flooding with unassessable crop and quality losses, supporting meal.
