
Soybean prices are near levels not seen in nearly four years ahead of harvest. Analyst Naomi Blohm lists weather during August pod-filling, the August 12 USDA report, export and crush demand, and market positioning as key factors.
Weather during pod-filling and the USDA August report could shift soybean supply expectations and provide price support if conditions turn hot or dry.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.