
USDA's January WASDE raised the 2021/22 soybean oil extraction rate to 11.83 lb per bushel and cut the meal rate to 47.0 lb. The change is linked to a very hot 2021 July-September in the US Soybean Belt, which reached 72.7°F.
Higher oil yield and lower meal yield shift the crush product mix toward oil and away from meal. This affects the relative supply and pricing of soybean oil and soybean meal.
After 18 past neutral weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +2.6% over 5 sessions (72% higher; middle half -0.4% to +3.5%), and +3.6% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.