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Kentucky Farm Bureau's May 16, 2018 closes show corn, soybeans, soybean meal and oil lower, with soy complex leading declines on spec fund selling tied to renewed US-China trade war fears and NAFTA risk. Wheat ended mixed, live cattle fell sharply, and lean hogs rose on stronger cash prices.
Trade-war fears and fund liquidation are pressuring soy and corn values, which lowers soymeal and feed grain costs for buyers in the near term. Lower cattle futures reflect softer cash feedlot demand.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
