
Ohio farmers say the $12 billion Market Facilitation Program is worth applying for, though they doubt it will fully offset losses from the 2018 trade war. Payment rates include $1.65 per bushel for soybeans, 14 cents for wheat and 1 cent for corn, with a January 15 application deadline.
Payments help sustain farm income and keep grain marketings and acreage decisions from being driven entirely by low prices. Farmers still prefer restored export access, so the underlying demand loss continues to weigh on soybean prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.