
Alberta analysts note barley prices have not recovered seasonally after harvest, as Canadian bulk barley exports to mid-January run near half of last year's pace. Australian exports to China resumed after China dropped its 80.5% tariff in August 2023, outcompeting Canadian barley.
Feed users shifted to corn, wheat and oats.
Lost Chinese export demand for Canadian barley and substitution toward corn leave feed barley prices under pressure. Buyers have room to negotiate on barley through spring.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.