
Argentina's soybean planting is running well ahead of last year, with 17.8% of the projected 17 million hectares sown, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Argentine wheat harvest is starting in the north and output is expected to be high, while forecasts point to uneven summer rainfall.
A fast Argentine planting pace and a large wheat crop add to South American supply, which weighs on soymeal and wheat export prices. Uneven rains linked to El Niño are the main upside risk to yields later in the season.
After 328 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.