
The UK's AHDB published its first cereal balance sheets for 2026/27 covering wheat and barley. It estimates UK wheat production at 12.074 Mt, up 116 Kt year on year, while total availability falls to 16.338 Mt due to very low opening stocks of 1.514 Mt.
Tighter opening stocks and a lack of rain across southern England keep UK wheat supply below its five-year average, which supports feed grain prices and the relative cost of wheat in animal feed rations.
After 772 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.