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Chicago wheat futures rose 1.5% to $5.93 1/4 per bushel on November 13, recovering losses as Russia-Ukraine tensions and renewed strikes raised risks to Black Sea shipping. South American forecasts diverged, with Brazil's wheat estimate lowered to 5.3 million tons and Argentina's raised to 24.3 million tons.
U.S. wheat export sales fell 66% week-over-week to 182.8 thousand tons, the lowest this marketing year.
Disrupted Black Sea shipping tightens global wheat export availability, supporting wheat prices and feed-grain costs. The weak U.S. export sales pace limits the rally, so the price impact depends on how long shipping risks last.
insights.tridge.comNov 14, 2026After 363 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
