WASDE tightened US corn and soy stocks, yet corn still sits in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range while weak export pace and a strong dollar cap rallies

Markets were quiet after Tuesday's WASDE: corn, soybeans and soybean meal each edged up 0.1%, and template feed costs rose 0.3% on the week but remain 5–6% below four weeks ago. US soybean and corn ending stocks came in well below trade estimates. Offsetting that, funds were selling, the dollar is near a 19-month high, the Brazilian real is at a 17-month low and US corn export commitments are lagging.

Grains: tighter US corn balance, soft demand signals

USDA put US corn ending stocks at 1,758 mil bu versus the 1,846 trade estimate, but also trimmed exports to 3,275 and the season-average price to $4.60/bu. Corn at $203.6/mt is at 27% of its 52-week range, and commitments are only 30% of the USDA export target versus a 42% five-year average. Elsewhere, Ukrainian wheat and corn export forecasts were cut by 3 mt and Russian seaborne grain exports fell to 2.3 mt in October. Australian growers are holding back sales on poor wheat and barley quality, and SRW wheat sits at 80% of its range. Rough rice hit a 52-week high (+77.8% y/y), and sorghum fell 1.7% to $149.2/mt, which may be worth pricing against corn where rations allow.

Protein meals and oilseeds

The big surprise was US soybean ending stocks at 300 mil bu versus 332 expected, and soybean export commitments are running ahead of pace at 65% versus a 54% average. Soybean meal at $429.9/mt sits at 66% of its range, with the USDA meal price unchanged at $340/st. Meal export commitments lag at 31% versus a 39% average. Brazil's soybean planting is 67% done versus a 62.7% average, and the weak real supports Brazilian farmer selling into 2027. Germany passed its EU Deforestation Regulation law ahead of the 30 December start, a traceability cost to watch for EU buyers of soy meal and palm. Fishmeal remains elevated at $2,840/mt, 93% of its range.

Livestock: hog margins at the floor

Lean hogs closed at a fresh 52-week low of $58.82/cwt (-30.2% y/y), and managed money is at a record net short. In China, self-breeding hog farms are losing about 447 yuan per head. Meanwhile 52% of the US beef cow herd is in drought-affected regions, which could slow herd rebuilding. Eggs jumped 10.3% as avian influenza activity rises in South Korea, and Class III milk is at 96% of its range after a sharp rally.

Energy and macro

The dollar is near a 19-month high on bets of a December Fed hike after hot October CPI, and US PPI is due today. EUR/USD tested $1.1045, which raises dollar-priced ingredient costs for euro-zone buyers. USD/BRL rose to 5.65, its highest since June 2025, making Brazilian soy and corn more competitive against US origin. Crude is steady near $89 WTI after the IEA's demand-decline forecast, but diesel is still up 70.7% y/y, and St. Louis barge freight eased 6.5% to $29.7/mt.