
Chinese state buyers have reportedly purchased about 15.1 million metric tons of US soybeans for 2026/27 delivery as of October 22, progress toward a stated 25 million ton annual commitment. China's additional 10% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans continues to limit the recovery.
Sustained Chinese state buying supports US soybean export demand and prices, but the remaining tariff keeps the recovery uneven and caps the upside for US soybeans relative to competitors.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.