WASDE tightened US corn and soy stocks, yet corn sits in the lower third of its 52-week range: a reasonable window to extend corn coverage

Two days after a bullish WASDE, which put US soybean ending stocks at 300 mil bu against a 332 trade estimate and corn at 1,758 against 1,846, benchmark corn, soybeans and soybean meal were flat on the day. Template feed costs rose 0.6% on the week but remain about 5–6% below four weeks ago. The dollar is at 19-month highs after hot US CPI, and crude eased on peace hopes and rising Middle East output.

Grains

Corn is at $204.8/t, 30% of its 52-week range and up only 2.3% y/y, despite WASDE cutting yield to 179.6 bu/a from 181.2 and stocks coming in 4.8% under trade estimates. Soybeans are at $452.7/t (68% of range) after a 2.1% jump on 11-10. US corn export commitments are lagging at 30% of USDA's estimate vs a 42% five-year average, which may cap upside, while soy is ahead at 65% vs 54%. SRW wheat is near the top of its range at 81% (+18.5% y/y), and EU winter-wheat moisture is favourable; adding corn coverage at these levels looks better value than wheat inclusion.

Protein meals

SBM is at $429.9/t, 66% of range, and WASDE left its price projection unchanged at $340/st. US meal export commitments trail at 31% vs a 39% five-year average. Alternative proteins are expensive: cottonseed meal, corn gluten meal, feather meal and linseed meal are all at 100% of their ranges, sunflower meal at 97% and canola meal at 92% (weekly data as of 11-02). That argues for leaning on SBM where formulas allow. MBM (-4.4% w/w, 16% of range) and DDGS (-2.1% w/w) are the softer spots worth bidding.

Fats & oils

Soybean oil is at $1,549/t, 82% of range, even though WASDE cut its price projection to 68¢/lb from 70. ADM credits strong biofuel margins for raised guidance. Palm oil fell 6.9% over five days on record Malaysian stocks before bouncing 2.2%. Among animal fats, choice white grease dropped 5.2% w/w to 26% of range and is the cheapest fat relative to its year.

Livestock & disease

Lean hogs are at $59.7/cwt, 2% of range and -29.8% y/y, and China's live pig price is down 20.5% y/y; weak hog margins could temper swine-feed demand. Bird flu is spreading. HPAI was confirmed in an Oregon dairy herd for the first time, Japan is culling 200,000 hens in Kyoto, and England's housing order starts Nov 13. US eggs rose 20.8% on 11-10. Class III milk is up about 17% over five days on record cheese prices.

Energy, freight & macro

Crude headed toward two-month lows on higher Saudi and Iraqi output and Ukraine and Iran peace hopes, but diesel is still $4.51/gal (+79.8% y/y) after refinery outages. The dollar hit a 19-month high on Fed-hike bets after CPI, and the euro is at an 18-month low. That is a headwind for US export demand but a cost for non-USD importers. Ocean grain freight is at the top of its range at $53.75/t; barge rates are mid-range. The US-China port-fee pause runs to Jan 10.