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A USDA WASDE report cut the U.S. corn yield estimate to 179.6 bushels per acre from 181.2 and lowered soybean ending stocks to 300 million bushels from 315 million, sending corn and soybean futures higher. Analysts say El Niño weather risk is now the next factor shaping grain trade, alongside lower output in parts of Europe and strong Brazilian crops.
A smaller U.S. corn crop and tighter soybean stocks support feed grain and soymeal prices, while El Niño-driven weather risk to South American and winter supply could keep export flows and prices volatile for feed buyers.
stonex.comEditorial TeamNov 12, 2026stonex.comEditorial TeamNov 12, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
