
Fed funds futures shifted hawkishly after the CPI release, raising expectations for rate hikes. The Dollar Index reached its highest level since April 2025 while the euro fell to an 18-month low near 1.109.
Higher US rate expectations strengthen the dollar, which tends to lower dollar-denominated commodity prices and raises import costs for buyers using weaker currencies.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.