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Deutsche Bank says stronger-than-expected April flash PMI data reinforced economic resilience and price pressures, cutting the odds of a Fed cut by year-end to about 20%. Two-year and ten-year Treasury yields closed higher on the day as oil prices held most of their gains.
Stronger US data and reduced cut expectations support the dollar and higher US yields, a headwind for dollar-priced commodities.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.