The euro fell to a new yearly low of 1.1078 dollars on Thursday morning, below the ECB reference rate of 1.1127 set the previous day. Helaba analysts cite the US yield advantage over the eurozone, driven by higher expectations for Fed rate increases.
A weaker euro against the dollar tilts trade flows toward US commodity exports and dollar-priced feed inputs, with rising Fed rate expectations supporting the dollar.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.